The likelihood of it being included in Ubuntu is mostly dependent on if the Linux Kernel (as upstream) includes the patch in the stable release 2.6.38 which will go into Natty Narwhal.
It's possible the Ubuntu kernel team will patch the Ubuntu kernel in time for the release if they feel it's really warranted. But that's up to them. You can track what the kernel team does here:
They often have meetings and discuss these sorts of things, the meeting minutes often contain the decision to patch certain things.
There is probably no chance that it'll be back ported, even if it's 200 lines, it's modifying key areas of kernel functionality which change all the time (making the patch hard to apply). If it were to go wrong, it'd be hard to fix. I'd say it would be almost impossible to accept a backport.